Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
